DETROIT – How long would it take for the Detroit Tigers to replace Javier Baez as the starting shortstop with someone like Ryan Kreidler?
The Javy Baez conundrum
Baez is low-hanging fruit right now at Tigers spring training. He’s batting an icy 3-for-32 through 13 games, with three singles, one walk, and 12 strikeouts.
Normally, for a veteran like Baez -- with more than 1,000 games played and 4,000 plate appearances at the MLB level -- nobody would care about his spring numbers. But since he’s the highest-paid player in the organization and has posted a combined .633 OPS over his first two years in Detroit, he’s constantly under the microscope.
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Baez’s performance has always been volatile, and his style of play unearths new levels of frustration for fans. He’ll whiff at a pitch in the left-handed batter’s box and then hit a fastball above the zone for a homer. He’ll botch a seemingly routine play and follow it up with a web gem.
The talent that fooled Al Avila into signing Baez is still somewhere in there. He has great range at shortstop. He’s fast. The power (when he makes contact) is obvious.
Unfortunately, he just doesn’t make enough contact to take advantage of his speed or power. And his great defensive range is often negated by inaccurate throws to first base.
Baez is set to make $25 million each of the next two seasons, and then he’ll make $24 million for the following two. With that kind of contract and no obvious upgrade at the position, it doesn’t seem likely that Baez could lose his starting job.
One player is stating his case, though.
Ryan Kreidler’s hot spring
There was a time before the Tigers signed Baez when Kreidler seemed the heir apparent at shortstop. After he was promoted alongside Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson to Triple-A in 2021, he proceeded to hit .304 with eight doubles, seven homers, and five steals in just 41 games.
But the rest of Kreidler’s career makes that small stretch look like an outlier. Sure, he posted an .810 OPS across 50 games in Toledo last season, but that came with far more strikeouts (53) than hits (42).
Kreidler has been amazing this spring, though. He owns a .321/.472/.536 slash line with two homers, two steals, eight walks, and 10 strikeouts across 36 plate appearances.
The primary factor working in Kreidler’s favor is that he doesn’t even necessarily have to be an average hitter to be an upgrade at short. He’s considered one of the best defenders in the organization, and that’s also been on display this spring.
Some metrics really like Baez defensively, too. Baseball Savant gives him an 85th percentile fielding run value and a 95th percentile outs above average.
But no matter what stat you choose, 45 errors is way too many for his two seasons in Detroit.
Theoretically, if Kreidler played 150 games for the Tigers, I wouldn’t expect him to be a much better hitter than Baez. But I would expect him to be an upgrade defensively and make fewer unproductive outs.
What would it take?
Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg didn’t sign Baez, so they might not be as committed to going down with the proverbial free-swinging ship. That said, it would probably take a very extended slump for Baez to be replaced in the everyday lineup.
Kreidler isn’t even likely to make the Opening Day roster, so it’s unreasonable to think he has any shot at the starting shortstop position early in the season.
And no matter how bad Baez looks in spring training, it’s still spring training. The Tigers know better than to make a rash decision based on exhibition games.
But what if July rolls around and Baez is repeating his numbers from last season? What if he has a sub-.600 OPS and a dozen throwing errors? If the Tigers are actually in contention for the AL Central crown, would they be willing to give Kreidler or someone else a shot at shortstop?
I think they would, especially since Baez is the antithesis of Harris’ core value: winning the strike zone. Nobody does a worse job controlling the strike zone.
Maybe Baez will have a bounce-back season, or maybe no amount of struggles could cost him his starting job. But he’s hurt the Tigers in plenty of games that didn’t really matter, and I don’t expect they’ll let him continue to do so if the games start to count.