Metro Detroit weather: Rain continues, severe threat looms

Waves of scattered showers continue

DETROIT – The as-promised active weather week continues, with the next batch of rain approaching the area. While we’ll see just some light showers this afternoon, heavier rain and possible thunderstorms will increase overnight ahead of an advancing warm front (the front edge of a much warmer air mass).

Temperatures will initially fall into the mid 40s (7 to 8 degrees Celsius), then rise to near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius) by the time we leave for work or school in the morning -- especially the farther south you are in our area.

Wind will blow from the northeast at 8 to 13 mph, which means that our Lakeshore Flood Advisories will continue through the night along the Lake Erie and Lake Huron shorelines due to the already high lake levels and onshore wind.

The big batch of overnight rain should be mostly north and west of the area by Wednesday morning. While a shower cannot be ruled out through early Wednesday afternoon, the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms ramps up later in the day into the evening.

At this point, our severe storm threat looks pretty limited, and will be largely based upon if we get any meaningful sunshine once the aforementioned warm front passes by. More sun means more heating, which translates into more low-level instability.

More low-level instability means that we can get surface-based thunderstorms to develop, and that would bring a greater severe threat. But all models today are suggesting a “dirty warm sector,” meaning that we’ll have limited sunshine behind that warm front.

If we get a lot of sun, then the wind field aloft would certainly support a few severe storms, so keep an eye on your radar on the Local4Casters app Wednesday afternoon and evening -- especially if you have outdoor plans, such as a little league practice.

Highs Wednesday should reach the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius), but have the potential to go higher if we get a lot of blue sky. Wind will shift to the southwest (and become rather strong at 20 to 25 mph), so the Lakeshore Flood Advisory for our Lake Erie shoreline will expire at 8:00 a.m., and at 4:00 p.m. for our Lake Huron shoreline.

Wednesday’s sunrise is at 6:29 a.m., and Wednesday’s sunset is at 8:32 p.m.

Showers and thunderstorms gradually taper off Wednesday night as that warm front sags just south of the area, with lows in the mid 50s (12 degrees Celsius).

Thursday starts dry, then the next batch of showers arrives by mid-to-late afternoon as the warm front starts a move back to the north. Highs should reach 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius) as long as the front passes north of us.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night, with lows in the low 50s (11 degrees Celsius).

While Friday could start with some showers (maybe), those will move out and the rest of the day should be dry. Highs in the mid 60s (17 to 18 degrees Celsius).

Weekend forecast

The weekend looks dry -- a welcome respite after the week we’ll have endured. There will probably be more sun Sunday than on Saturday but, again, the key word is dry. Highs Saturday should be in the mid 60s (17 to 18 degrees Celsius), and rise into the upper 60s (20 degrees Celsius) on Sunday.

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