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Metro Detroit weather: Balmy, stormy Thursday ahead

Dry Wednesday evening

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DETROIT – We’ve managed to get through today mostly dry, as only a few light showers moved from southwest to northeast across the Lansing area this afternoon, perhaps clipping a couple of you in the farthest western part of our West Zone.

Otherwise, it’s been a reasonable day with some sun and clouds mixed, although temperatures in the upper 50s (9 degrees Celsius) were well below average for this date. 

It appears that we’ll remain dry for most of the night, as well, and that means a dry evening for a change -- what a concept. Little league kids (and parents) can celebrate this small victory. We may see some showers toward dawn but, again, the bulk of the night should be dry.

Temperatures will only fall to around 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius), and then rise late at night as a warm front approaches. East winds will persist at 10 to 20 mph, although stronger in areas west of Lakes Erie, St. Clair and Huron.

As discussed yesterday, this east wind and higher than average lake levels leads to coastal flooding problems. Here is a rundown of the warnings and advisories in effect:

  • Southeast St. Clair County is under an Aerial Flood Warning (particularly for Harsens Island, Algonac, Marine City and Pearl Beach) until 2:45 p.m. Thursday.
  • Wayne and Monroe Counties are under a Lakeshore Flood Warning until 8 a.m. Thursday.
  • Macomb County is under a Lakeshore Flood Warning until 2 p.m. Thursday.
  • St. Clair and Sanilac Counties are under a Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 2 p.m. Thursday.

Fortunately, the east wind will swing around to the southwest following passage of that warm front on Thursday, and especially because it’ll blow at 20 to 25 mph by afternoon. The wind shift will happen from south to north across the area, hence the later expiration time for the warning and advisories for Macomb, St. Clair and Sanilac Counties.

It won’t rain all day Thursday and, in fact, there could even be a midday break, but we have the risk for a shower or thunderstorm all day. Here are a few snapshots from one of our high-resolution computer models showing some of the trends:

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This is the perfect day to have our free Local4Casters app and check the radar frequently to stay on top of the weather. If you’re one of the few who doesn’t have the app, just head over to the App Store and search under WDIV, it’s right there. It’s truly one of the very best weather apps available, and we don’t just say that because it’s ours. We say that because people tell us that all the time.

The biggest positive about Thursday will be temperatures, which will reach and even exceed 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius). In fact, if we manage to get any meaningful breaks of sun Thursday, then temperatures will really take off.

Showers and thunderstorms come to an end overnight Thursday night following passage of a cold front, with lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).

Friday should be dry (assuming all of the overnight showers move out before dawn), with sunshine starting to build in during the afternoon. Highs will barely make it to 60 degrees (15 degrees Celsius) and, in many areas, probably won’t.

Becoming mostly clear Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius).

Weekend update

Saturday still looks like the better of the two weekend days, as skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Wind should be light, so the high around 60 degrees (15 degrees Celsius) ought to be pretty pleasant, although many people probably wouldn’t mind it being a little warmer.

Dry weather continues into Saturday night, so there won’t be any problems with your Date Night plans.

Sunday will start dry, but an approaching cold front should give us a shower chance in the afternoon. There are still some meteorological variables that need to be worked out, so we’ll keep a close eye on the big Mother’s Day pattern, and keep you updated so you can plan accordingly. Highs will once again be below average, around 60 degrees (15 to 16 degrees Celsius).


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