Metro Detroit weather: Chilly morning with afternoon rain chance

Scattered showers with risk of small hail possible Tuesday afternoon

Here is the weather forecast for Metro Detroit.

DETROITGood Tuesday morning!

What a difference a day makes. Monday morning we started the day humid with temperatures in the 60s. By contrast, this morning we are starting off in the 40s and, in some areas, well down in the 40s.

We’ll have plenty of sunshine Tuesday morning, then skies will become partly cloudy in the afternoon as an upper level disturbance approaches. The disturbance’s timing coinciding with the warmest part of the day means that some scattered showers are possible. Some of us won’t see one, but we’re all at risk.

And remember that, with the cold air mass over us today, the freezing level aloft is lower, so any robust shower could potentially produce some pea-sized hail. But don’t worry about that -- this size hail does not cause damage, and is not an indicator of severe weather. Keep an eye on our app’s real-time radar this afternoon if you have outdoor plans.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid to upper 60s for most of us, with the heart of our urban heat island barely touching 70 degrees. A northwest wind will move at 5 to 10 mph and will shift to the southwest later in the day.

Skies will be clear Tuesday night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. A southwest wind will blow at 2 to 5 mph.

Warm week ahead

Another upper level disturbance will cross the area on Wednesday, but this one will be weaker than Tuesday’s, so I expect nothing worse than partly cloudy skies. Naturally, I’ll keep a close eye on things and update you if anything changes.

Highs Wednesday will rebound into the mid 70s. This is still below average, but very pleasant as long as we can keep the day dry with some sunshine. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 60s.

Thursday will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s. It will become mostly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the upper 60s as higher moisture air streams in.

Friday appears to be mostly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms developing at some point in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Showers and storms are likely Friday night, with lows in the upper 60s.

Weekend forecast

Right now, it appears that we have shower and thunderstorm chances on both Saturday and Sunday. Based on what I’ve seen Tuesday morning, we appear to have at least a chance of rain every day from this weekend through the end of next week. Now, it may not end up being seven continuous days with rain, but Tuesday’s models give me no choice but to at least introduce the chance.

The weather pattern through next week is rather nebulous, and the details are not clear right now, so stay tuned -- it will be interesting to see how this evolves.

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