4Warn Weather – The wicked line of weather that ripped through the Plains yesterday and throughout the overnight is heading our way. This is what you need to know.
We have issued a 4Warn Weather Alert for this afternoon and evening, Tuesday, May 7th. Roughly between 3-5pm we will have a linear line of showers cross Southeast Michigan, but it is expected to weaken as it advances into our region.
The severe threat will remain between 6pm-11pm.
What’s in question is the development of deep convection (energy) in the wake of the initial band of showers. We are confident on the shear values, which is a fancy way of saying that the ingredients will be there for wind gusts upward of 60 mph, putting us in the threshold for damaging straight line winds at the very least.
The main caveat for Southeast Michigan will be whether or not the surface-based instability is able to advect in from the southwest, which would lead to the potential for strong updrafts. That’s more meteorological speak as to whether or not the environment will produce strong updrafts which could result in hailstorms. As of right now, the potential exists for potentially large hail up to 1″ in diameter.
Because models support decent helicity (a measure of the potential for rotating updrafts), an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. This is a great time to make sure you have our 4Warn Weather App so you can get weather alerts sent straight to your phone.
I suspect that the second wave of showers and potentially severe storms will be more widespread and multicellular (as opposed to linear). The better chance for severe weather will be from Lansing to Detroit and south towards the state line which is under a slight (Level 2/5) risk. However, almost all of Southeast Michigan north of that line is under a marginal (Level 1/5) risk for severe storms.