DETROIT – The Detroit Lions inserted themselves firmly into the playoff discussion with their Week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, but where exactly do they fit into the fold in the NFC?
I know, I know: It’s taboo to talk playoffs this early. But there are only 17 games in a season, so every week matters. Last year, the Seattle Seahawks beat the Denver Broncos by one point in Week 1, and if they had lost, the Lions would have made the playoffs.
There’s a good chance the results from this weekend will end up having an affect on the postseason, too -- either in terms of seeding or who gets in.
So, now that every team has played once, let’s take a look at the race.
NFC playoff contenders
Teams in the NFL can change drastically from one year to the next, but I think we have a pretty good idea about which teams are contenders and pretenders.
The three top dogs most widely expected to make the playoffs in the NFC are the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys.
Then, the other four spots are likely to be filled by some combination of the Lions, Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers.
The remaining four teams are the Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, and Arizona Cardinals. Maybe one or two of those teams will be in the race.
First impressions
For the top three teams in the league, Week 1 did nothing to hurt their credibility.
San Francisco went on the road and crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers behind 169 total yards from Christian McCaffrey and a dominant defense.
Nobody was surprised to see Dallas win at the Giants on Sunday night. But 40-0? Either the Giants are a total mess (probably) or the Cowboys are much better than everybody thought.
Eagles-Patriots was closer than expected, but nobody is discounting Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia after one week, especially since they won on the road without playing their best game.
I think, for now, this is the trio most people will point to when they talk about Tier 1 teams in the NFC. The Lions have a chance to break into that group, but we can’t just include them after one game.
Where do the Lions fit in?
Let’s say, hypothetically, that the Lions are a Tier 2 team in terms of NFC playoff contenders. That would mean they’re in the mix for the No. 3 seed, because Dallas and Philadelphia can’t both win the NFC East.
The Vikings got off to a brutal start by losing at home to the Buccaneers. Nobody is counting them out yet, but everyone was already a bit skeptical, so that first impression did Minnesota no favors.
It would have been fun to see the Packers not get off to such a hot start -- a 38-20 road win -- but does that say more about them or the Bears? It’s still too early to tell. For now, we have to consider the possibility that Green Bay is a serious contender in the North. Again. Ugh.
Around the rest of the league, the Saints and Falcons got off to 1-0 starts in the NFC South. The Falcons taking down the Panthers was the most consequential result from that division.
Pretty much everyone expects the 49ers to win the NFC West, but will a wildcard contender emerge behind them? The Seahawks were the obvious choice, since they went to the postseason last year, but they got destroyed by the Rams at home on Sunday -- was that a fluke or a sign of regression?
None of these other Tier 2 teams went on the road and beat the defending Super Bowl champs, though, so the Lions have to feel like they’re sitting right near the top of this group.
Early playoff race thoughts
Last season, the Lions started off 1-6 and still nearly made it to the postseason. It’s really not that hard to get a wildcard spot.
For now, I think we should focus on the NFC North race. If the Lions can win the division, they’ll guarantee a top four seed and a home game. That’s priority No. 1.
But if you want to take it a step further, let’s say expectations hold throughout the year. The worst division winner would likely have to play either Dallas or Philadelphia (whichever doesn’t win the division) in the first round, so staying out of that spot and getting the No. 3 seed would be a good place to start.
Again, I know it’s early. But it’s been so long since the Lions actually had realistic playoff hopes for an entire season. I plan to take full advantage of it and keep my eye on the race for 18 weeks.