DETROIT – It sounds crazy to talk about the Detroit Lions as the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, but as they head into the bye week just one game behind the Eagles, there’s no denying it’s a possibility.
Current race for No. 1
As it stands, there are only five teams in the NFC with winning records -- and those pretty clearly seem to be the five best teams in the conference.
In the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the way at 7-1, with the Dallas Cowboys close behind at 5-2. The Seattle Seahawks lead the NFC West at 5-2, and the San Francisco 49ers are a half-game back at 5-3.
Then there’s the Lions at 6-2 -- just one game behind the Eagles for the best record in the league.
Tiebreaker situation
The Eagles aren’t just on top of the NFC standings, they’re also in the best position tiebreaker-wise, because they haven’t lost to another team in the conference.
Detroit, Seattle, and San Francisco are each 4-1 in NFC play, while the Cowboys are 2-2. So if the tiebreakers come down to conference record, the Eagles are sitting pretty and the Cowboys have ground to make up.
There are only two relevant head-to-head results in the books so far: the Lions’ loss to the Seahawks and the Cowboys’ loss to the 49ers. Both could certainly come into play in future seeding determinations, so the Lions and Cowboys are at a disadvantage.
Future schedules
Here’s why the Lions have a chance to be the No. 1 seed: They have, by far, the easiest remaining schedule of the five contenders. I don’t think the Lions are the best team in the NFC, but that doesn’t mean they can’t finish with the best record.
For the sake of this breakdown, I’m going to categorize each NFL team as “good,” “decent,” “bad,” or “awful.” Here are the remaining opponents for each of the five NFC contenders:
Lions:
- Good: Cowboys.
- Decent: Chargers, Saints, Vikings, Vikings.
- Bad: Bears, Packers, Bears, Broncos.
- Awful: None.
Eagles:
- Good: Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks.
- Decent: None.
- Bad: None.
- Awful: Giants, Cardinals, Giants.
49ers:
- Good: Jaguars, Seahawks, Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens.
- Decent: Buccaneers, Rams.
- Bad: Commanders.
- Awful: Cardinals.
Seahawks:
- Good: Ravens, 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles.
- Decent: Rams, Titans, Steelers.
- Bad: Commanders.
- Awful: Cardinals.
Cowboys:
- Good: Eagles, Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions.
- Decent: None.
- Bad: Commanders, Commanders.
- Awful: Giants, Panthers.
Obviously, when it comes to how many “good” teams are left on the schedule, the Lions have the fewest by far. They only have one, while each of the other four contenders have either five or six.
The Eagles only have four road games remaining, and the Seahawks have six. The Lions, 49ers, and Cowboys each have five.
The Lions also benefit by only having one head-to-head matchup against a team in this group (Dec. 30 at the Cowboys). The 49ers have three (in a row) and each of the others have four. Assuming there are no ties, someone has to lose those games, which helps the others.
What’s changed recently
Immediately after the blowout loss to the Ravens, I thought the Lions were pretty much out of the conversation for the No. 1 overall seed. It wasn’t just the way the Lions lost -- it was also the way I viewed both the Eagles and 49ers.
But since that day, the 49ers have lost two more games, including a 14-point home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. While I still think the 49ers are a top-tier team, this current three-game losing streak has exposed some vulnerabilities.
And now that the 49ers are a game behind the Lions, it’s much easier to believe the Lions could catch up to one elite team, as opposed to two.
The Cowboys and Seahawks have also looked quite a bit better than I expected, meaning the schedules for both the Eagles and 49ers are that much tougher.
Games that will determine Lions’ fate
Anything can happen in the NFL, but I’m currently expecting the Lions to beat the Packers on Thanksgiving, the Broncos in December, the Vikings at home, and the Bears both times.
That means Detroit’s eventual NFC standing will come down to four road games against the Chargers, Saints, Vikings, and Cowboys.
If the Lions go 2-2 through that stretch, they have a good chance to earn the No. 2 seed with a final record of 13-4. If they go 3-1, then the No. 1 overall seed starts to come into focus, especially if that loss is to the Chargers (an AFC team, therefore helping the tiebreaker).
What I expect
Even though it looks possible that the Lions could contend for the No. 1 seed, I expect them to finish either second or third in the NFC.
The worst-case scenario for the Eagles is probably 13-4, even with their difficult schedule. So the Lions would have to finish 7-2 down the stretch and win a tiebreaker to get the top seed.
That’s a lot to ask -- and yes, I know the Lions went 8-2 in the final 10 weeks last season. As easy as the schedule looks, it’s still the NFL, and there are plenty of opportunities to slip up -- would it be that shocking if the Lions had an off game in Chicago or Minneapolis, reminiscent of the Carolina game last season? I don’t think so.
I think there’s a good chance the Lions go 6-3 down the stretch and win the NFC North comfortably with a 12-5 record.