DETROIT – The Green Bay Packers’ loss on Monday Night Football eliminated the possibility of one tiebreaker scenario involving the Detroit Lions, and in a weird way, it clinched another.
Before Monday night’s kickoff, it felt like a reasonable possibility that the Lions and Packers could both finish the season 10-7 or 11-6. If the Packers had beaten the Giants, they would have been just two games behind the Lions with a much easier schedule to finish out the season.
As I’ll soon explain, the tiebreaker might have come down to which team had a better record against their “common opponents.” Now, the only possible tiebreaker between the two teams would be very cut and dry.
Here are the two points I’m going to make below:
- There’s no longer a possible scenario where the Lions and Packers have to go to a “common opponents” tiebreaker.
- If the Lions and Packers end the season with the same overall record, the Packers will finish ahead of the Lions.
Click here to view the NFL’s official tiebreaking procedures.
How could ‘common opponents’ tiebreaker have come into play?
To trigger the “common opponents” tiebreaker, the Lions and Packers would have had to finish with not only the same overall record, but also the same record within the division.
The Lions and Packers already split their two head-to-head meetings, and the second tiebreaker is divisional record.
Right now, both teams are 2-2 against the NFC North with two games remaining -- the Lions play the Vikings twice while the Packers visit the Vikings and host the Bears. To move to “common opponents,” the Lions and Packers would have both had to go 2-0 or 1-1 in those games.
Why that’s no longer possible
Now that the Packers are 6-7, there’s no way the two teams can finish with the same overall record and the same divisional record.
Let’s say the Lions and Packers both go 2-0 against their remaining NFC North opponents. The Lions would finish with at least 11 wins, and the Packers can only mathematically reach 10.
What if they both go 1-1? Even if that was Detroit’s only win and Green Bay’s only loss in the final four games, the Lions would finish 10-7, the Packers 9-8.
If they both go 0-2 in NFC North games, the Vikings are guaranteed to win the division anyway -- no Lions-Packers tiebreaker necessary.
Tiebreaker would now be very clear-cut
The Packers and Lions could still end up tied in overall record, but that would require one of the following two scenarios:
- Green Bay goes 4-0 while the Lions go 1-3.
- Green Bay goes 3-1 while the Lions go 0-4.
In both of these scenarios, the Packers would own a better divisional record than the Lions, and therefore, they would finish ahead.
That’s just the way it played out. There’s no longer a scenario where the Lions end up tied with the Packers and win the NFC North.
Common opponents breakdown
So who would have won the “common opponents” tiebreaker between these two teams?
Divisional games would have canceled each other out, leaving eight relevant “common opponents” between the two teams:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Denver Broncos
- New Orleans Saints
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Carolina Panthers
If you’ve followed the Lions closely this season, you can probably already see where this is going.
The Packers are 3-3 against this group of teams, with losses to the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos. They will play the Buccaneers and Panthers in the coming weeks, so the best they can do is 5-3.
The Lions are 7-0 in these games, with only the Broncos remaining.
So even if the Lions lose to the Broncos and the Packers beat the Buccaneers and Panthers, the Lions would have a superior record against common opponents.
This tiebreaker was locked up in Detroit’s favor. That’s OK, I’m guessing the Lions would much rather take the Green Bay loss.