DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are limping to the finish line after a strong start to this season, and the schedule is about to get quite a bit tougher.
Denver is coming to town on a streak of six wins in seven games. Then the Lions travel to Minnesota to play the 7-6 Vikings and Dallas to play the 10-3 Cowboys. The regular season ends with a Vikings rematch at Ford Field.
With the way the Lions have been playing -- turning the ball over on offense, struggling to generate pressure on defense, and making mental mistakes -- none of the remaining four games are certain victories.
So let’s take a look at how the Lions can make the playoffs if they lose multiple games down the stretch.
NOTE: We aren’t considering ties.
If the Lions finish 0-4
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 9-8
- Playoff probability: Medium
- Division probability: Zero
If the Lions finish 9-8, they’ll be right where they finished a year ago, albeit in a little better position to sneak into the postseason.
Either the Vikings or Packers would win the NFC North in this scenario. If the Packers finish 4-0 in this scenario, they would win the division. And then the Vikings would be ahead of the Lions in the wildcard pecking order.
One of the three wildcard spots is already accounted for: whoever finishes second in the NFC East between Dallas and Philadelphia. That leaves two spots.
The Lions would need 3 of the following 4 outcomes to guarantee at least a wildcard spot:
- Packers lose 2 more games.
- Rams lose 2 more games.
- Seahawks lose 2 more games.
- Buccaneers OR Falcons lose 1 more game.
If the Rams only lose one game, they would have a better conference record than the Lions (7-5 vs. 6-6), and therefore win the tiebreaker.
If the Seahawks only lose one game, they would top the Lions thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If the Buccaneers and Falcons win out, they would both finish 10-7, and one would win the division while the other earns a wildcard spot over the Lions. A loss by either drops them below the Lions thanks to the head-to-head result.
The reason the Saints aren’t included: They play both the Buccaneers and Falcons before the end of the season, so if they win out, the other two would have at least eight losses and fall behind Detroit.
If the Lions finish 1-3 (0-2 vs. Vikings)
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 10-7
- Playoff probability: High
- Division probability: Low
It looks like 10 wins will be enough to earn a playoff spot this season, especially in the NFC.
In this scenario, the Lions beat either Denver or Dallas and lose the other three games, including both against the Vikings.
It’s better to get a win against an NFC team to boost the conference record tiebreaker, but in this case, it doesn’t end up changing the equation.
Here’s what the Lions would need to win the division:
- Vikings lose to Bengals and Packers.
- Packers lose 1 of these 3 games: Buccaneers, Panthers, Bears.
The Lions would need 2 of the following 4 outcomes to guarantee at least a wildcard spot:
- Vikings lose to Bengals and Packers.
- Packers lose 1 more game.
- Rams lose 1 more game.
- Seahawks lose 1 more game.
Even if the Vikings and Packers both finished ahead of the Lions, either the Rams or the Seahawks would have to win out to knock them out of the postseason.
If the Lions finish 1-3 (1-1 vs. Vikings)
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 10-7
- Playoff probability: High
- Division probability: Fairly high
If the Lions beat the Vikings once and finish 10-7, that would mean they split with all three NFC North rivals and finish with a division record of 3-3.
Here’s what the Lions would need to win the division in this scenario:
- Vikings lose to Bengals or Packers.
- Packers lose 1 more game.
As you can see, the probability of clinching the NFC North increases sharply if the Lions can win even once against Minnesota.
The Lions would need 2 of the following 4 outcomes to guarantee at least a wildcard spot:
- Vikings lose to Bengals or Packers.
- Packers lose 1 more game.
- Rams lose 1 more game.
- Seahawks lose 1 more game.
Just like in the previous scenario, the Lions wouldn’t need much help to get into the playoffs with 10 wins.
If the Lions finish 2-2 (0-2 vs. Vikings)
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 11-6
- Playoff probability: Guarantee
- Division probability: High
There are only six teams left in the NFC who can mathematically reach 11 wins, so if the Lions win two more games, they’re guaranteed at least a wildcard spot.
But in this scenario, the division title would not be a certainty. Two head-to-head wins would keep the Vikings in play.
Here’s what the Lions would need to win the division in this scenario:
- Vikings loss to Bengals or Packers.
If the Lions win two more games, the Vikings have to win out to steal the division crown. The Packers would be eliminated because they can’t mathematically reach 11 wins.
If the Lions finish 2-2 (2-0 or 1-1 vs. Vikings)
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 11-6
- Playoff probability: Guarantee
- Division probability: Guarantee
Minnesota is inherently eliminated in this scenario because even splitting with the Lions would hand them a seventh loss, and the Lions would be 11-6.
Green Bay is 6-7, so even if it ran the table, it would finish a game behind Detroit.
If the Lions finish 3-1
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 12-5
- Playoff probability: Guarantee
- Division probability: Guarantee
The NFC North would be locked up, and the Lions would likely earn the No. 3 seed behind San Francisco and the winner of the NFC East (Cowboys or Eagles).
If the Lions finish 4-0
- Lions’ final record in this scenario: 13-4
- Playoff probability: Guarantee
- Division probability: Guarantee
This feels highly unlikely, but it would put the Lions back in contention for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Should the Eagles slip up against the Seahawks, the Lions would win the “common opponents” tiebreaker.
It would take a miracle to catch the 49ers, though, as they would have to lose twice in their last four games, and three of those are against the Commanders, Cardinals, and Rams (at home).