4Warn Weather – Southeast Michigan has been upgraded to an “enhanced” risk of severe weather on Thursday, July 20, but what does that actually mean?
READ: Timeline for possible severe storms, rain, tornadoes today
You can hear Ashlee Baracy explain the “enhanced” storm risk in the video above.
What changed?
When Thursday started, Southeast Michigan was under a “slight” risk for severe weather, but around 9 a.m., that risk was upgraded to “enhanced.”
These terms are part of a five-category scale that measures severe storm risk. Here’s each category, in order from lowest to highest risk:
- Marginal
- Slight
- Enhanced
- Moderate
- High
The area is under an “enhanced” risk for Thursday afternoon. Severe storms are most likely to begin around 2-3 p.m. and could last until somewhere between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.
Primary dangers
In terms of what to expect from this afternoon’s storms, the switch from “slight” to “enhanced” risk doesn’t change much.
Tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Local 4′s Ashlee Baracy said it appears the main line of storms will turn linear around 4 p.m. Thursday, and that’s around when some rotation could begin.
Hail as large as 2 inches in diameter is possible. Winds could gust up to 60 mph or higher.
The storm is heading east at 35 mph.
Tornado chances
The Storm Prediction Center estimated Thursday morning that Southeast Michigan has a 2% chance of a tornado, which is actually considered high.
That doesn’t represent the likelihood of a tornado warning being issued -- the chances of that are much higher since a warning only requires the detection of a storm capable of producing a tornado.
Residents should seek shelter in a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a building during the storm window.