4Warn Weather – Today’s temperatures will feel more like early May. High temperatures this afternoon are on pace to climb into the upper 60s crushing the previous record high of 63 degrees set back in 1976.
This unseasonal warmth will set the stage for severe thunderstorm potential tonight and that is why we are under a 4Warn Weather Alert.
Metro Detroit storm timing
Clouds roll in late this evening and the threat for severe weather arrives with a low-pressure system overnight. The widespread timeframe will be 8PM to 4AM, but I think this will more likely develop around 11pm in our southern counties and closer to midnight across the Metro.
These storms will push to the northeast into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Most of this rain is out of here by daybreak.
Metro Detroit storm threats
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight across the area. This is only the eighth time the Storm Predication Center has issued a slight risk for SE Michigan in February since 1986.
All hazards (wind, hail, isolated tornado) are possible. We could see hail up to 2″ in diameter and wind gusts near 50 mph. Let’s talk more specifically about the hail risk.
Here’s a picture of hail in Sanilac County that was submitted Tuesday by viewer Jerry Guzdial on MyPics:
When the Storm Prediction Center issues “significant hatching” that means there is a 10% or higher probability for significant severe events within 25 miles of any point. A “Significant hail Risk” is defined as hail 2 inches or larger in diameter.
Relatively speaking that would be hail greater than the size of golf balls and closer to the size of a hen egg. Does that mean we will see hail that large? No. However the potential exists.
Metro Detroit weather whiplash
A quick return to winter occurs with sharply falling temperatures Wednesday. We hit our high temperature before sunrise and then cold air surges in from the northwest with winds gusting upward of 40 mph.
Within 24 hours, we will see temperatures fall nearly 40 degrees and feel even colder with the wind chill.
---> Upload weather photos here to MIPics