DETROIT – Colder fall temperatures are beginning to settle in for the season -- but when will Metro Detroit see its first actual frost of 2023?
It could happen soon, though it may take a few weeks, if historical records are any indication.
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According to 4Warn Meteorologist Ashlee Baracy, a “first frost” could mean that temperature readings from above ground are actually around 36 degrees, since readings at the surface could be freezing at that point. Freezing occurs at 32 degrees Fahrenheit.
On average, Metro Detroit has seen its first frost of the season on Oct. 5. We’ve obviously already passed that date this year, and as of Ot. 10, we don’t appear to expect temperatures to drop below 40 degrees over at least the next 10 days.
The latest first frost Metro Detroit has ever recorded was on Nov. 6, 1900.
When it comes to an actual 32-degree day, the earliest we’ve ever recorded above-ground temperatures that cold was on Sept. 22, 1974, nearly 50 years ago. The latest we’ve ever recorded a 32-degree day in the fall was on Nov. 15, 1946.
When looking at data from the last 30 years, the average date for the first freezing day in Metro Detroit is Oct. 25. Last year, in 2022, our first freezing day was on Nov. 13.
If those dates are any indication, we have a few weeks before things really cool down.
On Tuesday, Oct. 10, there were morning freeze warnings in effect for parts of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin, but not for anywhere in Michigan. Temperatures are noticeably colder in Metro Detroit, though, with highs only expected to reach the 50s and low 60s over the next 10 days, and with lows remaining in the 40s.