DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are currently the No. 3 team in the NFC standings due to a technicality, but they still control their own path to the No. 2 seed.
If you visit your favorite standings page on the NFL website or even ClickOnDetroit.com, you’ll notice the Lions are currently listed third in the NFC behind the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in terms of playoff seeding.
All three teams are 11-4, and if the playoffs started today, the Lions would indeed be third. “But you’ve been telling us for weeks that the Lions control their own destiny for the No. 2 seed!”
I haven’t misled you, I promise.
If the 49ers, Eagles, and Lions all win their final two games, San Francisco will be No. 1, Detroit will be No. 2, and Philadelphia will be No. 3.
When the NFL breaks ties between division winners to determine playoff seeding, these are the criteria:
- Head-to-head result.
- Conference winning percentage.
- Winning percentage against common opponents.
- Strength of victory.
There are more tiebreakers after SOV, but this is as far as we need to go.
The Lions and Eagles didn’t play head-to-head, and they both have a 7-3 record in conference (the 49ers are 9-1, which is why they own the top seed). That means the tiebreaker moves to how the Lions and Eagles performed against their mutual opponents.
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Here’s where the technicality comes in. By the end of the season, the Lions and Eagles will have played six games against “common opponents.” Both teams played the Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Seahawks once. The Eagles played the Vikings once and the Cowboys twice, and the Lions will have played the Vikings twice and the Cowboys once.
Yes, even though they played an uneven number of games against the Vikings and Cowboys, all of those results count in this comparison. Here’s the verbiage on the NFL tiebreaker page:
“In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.”
The Eagles have already played their six games against those teams, going 4-2:
- Sept. 14: Beat Vikings 34-28.
- Sept. 25: Beat Buccaneers 25-11.
- Nov. 5: Beat Cowboys 28-23.
- Nov. 20: Beat Chiefs 21-17.
- Dec. 10: Lost to Cowboys 33-13.
- Dec. 18: Lost to Seahawks 20-17.
Meanwhile, the Lions have played four of their six games:
- Sept. 7: Beat Chiefs 21-20.
- Sept. 17: Lost to Seahawks 37-31.
- Oct. 15: Beat Buccaneers 20-6.
- Dec. 24: Beat Vikings 30-24.
- Dec. 30: Play at Cowboys.
- Jan. 7: Host Vikings
The Lions are 3-1 in these games so far, which is a .750 winning percentage. At 4-2, the Eagles have a .667 winning percentage in those same games.
So why aren’t the Lions winning the tiebreaker?
Well, since Detroit hasn’t actually played the Cowboys yet, they aren’t currently considered a “common opponent.” So you have to remove both Cowboys games from the Eagles’ list, which makes them 3-1 -- the same as the Lions.
As a result, the current standings are using the fourth tiebreaker, which is strength of victory. Right now, the Eagles lead the Lions .479-.436 in that metric, so they hold the No. 2 seed.
Click here to read a full breakdown of the possible future tiebreakers between the Lions and Eagles.
Once the Lions play the Cowboys this weekend, those two Cowboys-Eagles games will be added to the “common opponents” consideration, so if the Lions win in Dallas, they will take over control of the No. 2 seed.
If the Lions lose, this conversation is likely moot, as the Eagles finish the season against the lowly Cardinals and Giants.