Metro Detroit weather: Thursday storm threat

Rain develops Thursday afternoon, chances last through weekend

Our Thursday is starting off on a quiet, mild note. The radar at 4:15 a.m. showed one area of showers moving northward out of western Ohio that might just clip the far western part of Lenawee County, and eventually move northward through Jackson and Ingham Counties. So, almost all of us have a dry start to the day.

DETROIT – Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up to our south and move northward toward us by late afternoon (or mid-afternoon for Lenawee and possibly Monroe counties).

Some high resolution computer models try to stir up widely scattered showers or storms by mid-afternoon, but my gut feeling is that the bulk of this will hold off until late afternoon and evening.

The potential for severe storms is low. The atmosphere will be nearly saturated all the way up into the mid levels (ideally, dry air over moist air enhances the severe potential). Ultimately, while a severe storm with marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out, I feel that this will be the exception rather than the rule. Some of the storms could have torrential downpours, which could produce 40 to 50 mph gusts.

Highs Thursday should reach the mid 70s, although a developing gusty southeast wind at 10 to 15 mph will keep things cooler near Lakes Erie, St. Clair and Huron.

Thursday’s sunset is at 8:07 p.m.

Thursday evening showers and thunderstorms will diminish, with skies becoming partly cloudy later at night. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

It will be partly cloudy to start on Friday, then becomes cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Showers will diminish overnight Friday night, with lows in the low to mid 50s.

Rainy weekend

Saturday will start dry with partial sunshine, then we’ll cloud up and rain is possible in the late afternoon (the computer models still differ on the timing). Highs will be near 70 degrees.

Rain reigns Saturday night, with rumbles of thunder possible. Depending upon which computer model verifies, we could see anywhere from three-quarters of an inch to an inch-and-a-half of rain. Lows Saturday night will be near 50 degrees.

Showers continue into Sunday, with cooler highs in the low 60s.

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About the Author:

Local 4 meteorologist Paul Gross was born in Detroit and has spent his entire life and career right here in southeast Michigan. Paul has researched, written and produced eight half-hour documentaries for WDIV, as well as many science, historical and environmental stories.