Metro Detroit weather: Severe storm threat in the forecast Tuesday

Strong damaging winds will be biggest threat, localized flooding, hail and tornadoes are possible

The Local 4Casters track the latest weather alerts in Metro Detroit and Southeast Michigan. Get the most updated information here:

DETROIT – It’s been a beautiful Labor Day. You can’t ask for much better on what’s a day off for most, nor for the start of Rosh Hashanah this evening. If you are celebrating the holiday, I wish you a hearty L’Shanah Tovah Tikateivu!

Skies overnight will remain mostly clear, and it’ll be great sleeping weather with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s (10 to 13 degrees Celsius), with mostly calm air.

This evening’s sunset is at 7:58 p.m. and Tuesday morning’s sunrise is at 7:05 a.m.

Metro Detroit weather update: Sept. 6, 2021 afternoon, evening forecast

Tuesday has had the bullseye on my weather calendar since late last week. The day will start innocently enough, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity. However, increasing southwest winds – gusting to 30 mph by afternoon – will skyrocket our temperatures well into the 70s (24 to 26 degrees Celsius) by noon, and into the mid 80s (30 degrees Celsius) for an afternoon high. The daytime hours should remain dry for most of us…the only chance for a thunderstorm would be across the northern half of Sanilac County late in the afternoon, but even that may not happen.

However, an approaching cold front with a sufficient amount of dynamic and thermodynamic support will spawn a line of severe storms across the northern lower peninsula Tuesday afternoon, and that line will progress across southeast Michigan during the evening hours. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, torrential downpours, and even a tornado or two are all possible. Make sure you keep your devices charged Tuesday in case the power goes out, and this would also be a good time to make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries.

If you were watching Local 4 News at 11 p.m. Sunday night, you may recall my explanation about the storms being at their worst when it’s warmest, and that rationale is not only still valid today, but should have important implications as to who has the highest risk. At this point, I feel that areas north and west of a Port Huron to Southfield to Adrian line have the best chance for an episode of severe storms, with those storms starting to weaken as they head southeast of that line. However, all of us are at risk for severe storm impacts Tuesday evening, so remain weather aware.

We will keep you updated here on, Local 4, and on the free Local4Casters app. Brandon Roux will have new high-resolution computer model data to work with Tuesday morning…I strongly urge you to check in with him when you wake up to get the latest specifics. And if you’re one of the few who doesn’t have our app yet, I strongly urge you to download it now by searching WDIV in the app store…it’s right there. If you’re in your basement and the power goes out, your cell phone is your only connection with the outside world…and our app has real-time radar and, if you have notifications turned on, it even sends you alerts when dangerous weather is approaching (not to mention the warnings themselves). Remember that the nation’s best weather app is free.

The storms should move out of the area by around midnight, and the rest of Tuesday night should be fairly quiet with clearing skies and lows in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius).

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy both Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the mid 70s (23 to 25 degrees Celsius). There is the chance for a few stray afternoon showers both days, but more of us will remain dry than get wet. Wednesday will be windy, and there will be less wind on Thursday.

Mostly sunny on Friday…a splendid day to end the work week…with highs in the upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius).

Weekend Outlook

Saturday has been a thorn in my side for a few days now, as the computer models differ greatly on the evolving weather pattern. Some models keep us dry, while other models generate some showers in the afternoon. I just don’t have enough confidence yet to make a call on this…sorry, but I have to be honest with you.

Obviously, I still have several days to get a better handle on this. At this point, Sunday looks dry but again, I have lower confidence than normal. Highs appear to reach the low 80s (27 to 28 degrees Celsius), with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s (14 to 16 degrees Celsius).

Tracking the weather:

About the Author:

Local 4 meteorologist Paul Gross was born in Detroit and has spent his entire life and career right here in southeast Michigan. Paul has researched, written and produced eight half-hour documentaries for WDIV, as well as many science, historical and environmental stories.