Metro Detroit weather: Not a bad weekend ahead

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Before getting to the forecast, I want to first mention something about yesterday’s forecast for today. 

All but one high-resolution computer model Thursday afternoon suggested that the snow we had today would get no farther north than I-94.  There was nothing suggesting that the one model had things right, so I followed the overwhelming majority of models that agreed with each other. 

Then, as I monitored radar Thursday evening, I saw the developing area of precipitation farther north in Wisconsin than expected, and becoming larger than the models depicted. 

Careful examination of new model data coming in showed a couple of models developing a better handle on what was happening, so I updated my forecast on Local 4 News at 11 to reflect a farther northward batch of snow crossing our area today. 

Now, to be clear, I also said that it wouldn’t be a big deal, and it wasn’t.  However, I bring this to your attention to highlight that a weather forecast is an evolution. 

It’s not often that I have to radically modify a short-term forecast…usually, that occurs with the longer-range forecasts.  But that’s also why you should watch our newscasts and / or check our weather app periodically to make sure that nothing changes if you made plans based upon the weather.

Weekend forecast

Alright…let’s get on with the forecast.  Clouds should gradually start breaking up overnight, with lows near 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius), and wind becoming light and variable.

This evening’s sunset is at 5:02 p.m., and Saturday morning’s sunrise is at 7:46 a.m.

Saturday should turn out mostly sunny, with some high cirrus clouds passing through from time to time.  Highs in the low 40s (5 degrees Celsius) combined with that sunshine makes it a great day for holiday shopping or getting up those Christmas lights, although there will be a bit of a breeze from the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Increasing clouds Saturday night, but we’ll be dry for your Saturday evening plans.

Lows in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius).

Mostly cloudy on Sunday, with rain showers developing from west to east by late afternoon.  Temperatures are a little tricky…we’ll probably reach the low 40s (5 degrees Celsius) Sunday afternoon, but temperatures will continue to rise into Sunday evening following passage of a warm front.  In fact, we could hit 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius) by midnight!

One thing we need to monitor Sunday evening are some showers crossing the area, because the wind aloft will be quite strong.  So, the heaviest downpours could produce 40+ mph wind gusts.  Showers will end late at night following passage of a strong cold front.

Monday will be a raw, windy day with some snow showers possible.  West winds could blow steady at 30 to 40 mph, with temps in the 30s (1 to 3 degrees Celsius).