Dry Tuesday, then rainy end to the week for Metro Detroit: Here are the details

Rain chances develop Wednesday, could last into holiday weekend

Here is the weather forecast for Metro Detroit.

DETROITGood Tuesday morning!

We have one more dry day today before we shift into an unsettled weather pattern through the end of the week. But will we salvage the big holiday weekend?!

Today’s sunrise was at 6:04 a.m.

Today should feature more sunshine than what we saw on Monday, with temperatures responding accordingly. Highs will reach the upper 60s this afternoon, except in the Thumb region, where northeast winds moving at 5-10 mph will keep things cooler.

Today’s sunset is at 8:57 p.m.

Clouds will increase Tuesday night, with lows generally not far from 50 degrees. A northeast wind will move at 3-7 mph.

Rain chances Wednesday, beyond

Even if our Hump Day starts with a few peeks of sun, we’ll cloud up and have mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers will develop during the afternoon. A rumble of thunder also cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday highs will be in the low-to-mid-70s.

A warm front will cross the area Wednesday evening without too much fanfare, although a scattered shower or thunderstorm is still possible. The warmer air mass behind that front will keep temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s through the night, with the humidity creeping back in, as well.

It will be mostly cloudy on Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance right now appears to be during the second half of the day, and there’s a small chance that a stronger storm could materialize. Stay weather alert, particularly during the afternoon.

Thursday highs will be in the upper 70s. Scattered showers will continue Thursday night, with lows near 60 degrees.

We’ll still have some showers around on Friday, with highs near 70 degrees.

Memorial Day weekend preview

The computer models are struggling a bit with the weekend weather pattern.

The GFS model develops one of those cut-off, upper-level low pressure system over the Ohio Valley region, which would slow everything down and keep shower chances going into Saturday, and possibly Sunday.

The ECMWF model also develops an upper-level low, but keeps it progressive (i.e., moving). I see more support for the ECMWF solution right now, so we’ll go with a dry day Saturday, albeit with more clouds than sun (at least to start), and highs in the low 70s.

As long as that upper-level low keeps moving, we’ll see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday, with highs near 80 degrees Sunday and into the mid-80s on Monday.

We’ll hopefully have more confidence in the weekend forecast by Wednesday -- stay tuned!

Also, remember my old adage about holiday weekends: “Best two-out-of-three wins.” If we get two out of three nice days out of the deal, then we have nothing to complain about. Only one nice day gives us a legitimate gripe, and a perfect three-of-three means we’re living large.

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About the Author:

Local 4 meteorologist Paul Gross was born in Detroit and has spent his entire life and career right here in southeast Michigan. Paul has researched, written and produced eight half-hour documentaries for WDIV, as well as many science, historical and environmental stories.