4Warn Weather – As promised, we had a pretty good shopping day Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and afternoon temperatures that reached the mid-40s (7 to 8 degrees Celsius).
We’ll see a few patches of drizzle or light showers cross the area overnight, but this won’t be of much consequence. Temperatures should only drop into the upper-30s (4 degrees Celsius) by dawn, with a very light wind from the north.
Tuesday evening’s sunset is at 5:01 p.m., and Wednesday’s sunrise is at 7:48 a.m.
Wednesday
Wednesday will be much like Tuesday, with lots of clouds and perhaps a few thin spots or breaks of sun. It’ll be a warmer day, though, with highs soaring into the upper-40s (9 degrees Celsius) in most areas, with the mid-40s (8 degrees Celsius) in the Thumb. Naturally, if we get any bonus sunshine, then a few of us in the south could hit 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius). Wind remains light from the north-northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Mostly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows in the mid-30s (1 degree Celsius).
Thursday
Mostly cloudy on Thursday, with highs in the low-to-mid-40s (6 degrees Celsius).
Cloudy Thursday night, with a few snowflakes possible late at night. Lows in the mid-30s (1 degree Celsius).
The computer models are still in wide disagreement on the evolution of the Friday storm I talked about Monday. On Monday, the European model tracked low pressure south of us across Indiana and Ohio (a colder solution), while the American model took the low northeastward across Michigan (a warmer solution).
On Tuesday, the American model has trended closer to the European (which has remained consistent) in terms of tracking the low south of us. However, the two models’ thermal fields differ greatly. Of course, I have many other models at my disposal, so after reviewing everything, at this point, I expect rain for the southern half of the area, with mostly snow for the northern half. If the European model verifies, then that snow would be accumulating snow, with most of the precipitation falling during the daylight hours Friday.
By Wednesday, this storm will be in range of more high-resolution models, so I hope to be able to get more confident in the forecast at that point.
Weekend forecast
At this point, Saturday looks like another great shopping day, with mostly cloudy skies and highs not far from 40 degrees (5 degrees Celsius).
Sunday now is a little up in the air, as some models track an upper-level disturbance southeastward across southeast Michigan, which would give us a chance for rain or snow showers. Stay tuned, it’s still five days away, and these upper-level disturbances are tough to get a handle on this far in advance.
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