Metro Detroit weather: Challenging Labor Day weekend forecast

Rain chances this weekend

DETROIT – Well, we did it -- made it to Friday!

And now we’re staring at a three-day holiday weekend for most -- I’ll get to that part of the forecast in a moment.

Friday forecast

But first, we have a splendid day (almost) to end the work week. Expect mostly sunny skies this morning, then you’ll see some fair weather cumulus -- “cotton ball” -- clouds pop up late morning, and they’ll be around through the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s (23 degrees Celsius) are very pleasant in the sunshine, but keep in mind that it’ll become breezy -- we’ll have west winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph by afternoon.

Today’s sunrise is at 7:02 a.m., and today’s sunset is at 8:01 p.m.

Mostly clear for most of the night, then some clouds will approach later at night. Lows in the low to mid 50s (10 to 12 degrees Celsius). Southwest wind diminishing to 4 to 8 mph.

Saturday forecast

An upper level disturbance (I wrote about this yesterday) will cross the lower peninsula on Saturday. I’ve been looking at forecast computer model projections of moisture from the surface up to 20,000 feet, and the air mass is pretty dry. The disturbance will generate some clouds, and probably some showers -- but some of that rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.

Thus, any showers that do survive should be light. High-resolution computer models suggest that the best chance to see a scattered shower is across the northern half of the area, and also that we should have partly cloudy skies for part of the day.

Bottom line: It won’t be a washout, so just keep an eye on our app’s live radar if you have outdoor plans. Highs (as long as we get any sunshine) should reach the mid to upper 70s (25 to 26 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy to mostly clear Saturday night, with lows in the mid 50s (14 degrees Celsius).

Sunday forecast

Partly cloudy on Sunday with the small chance for a late-afternoon shower or thunderstorm…I think we’ll get through most of the daylight hours dry, but keep an eye on our app’s radar, just in case. Highs in the upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius).

There’s a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday night, with warmer lows in the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius).

Labor Day forecast

Labor Day continues to be handled poorly by the computer models (this is a very tough weather pattern -- the models have been a mess all week long trying to figure out next week’s weather pattern). At this point, I think our best probability is for a chance of morning showers, then drying out in the afternoon.

As long as we can keep the afternoon dry, we may be able to get to near 80 degrees or into the low 80s (27 to 28 degrees Celsius).

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