Metro Detroit weather: A few flakes today, more snow this weekend

Some snow expected Saturday

DETROIT – As expected, Thursday night snow has been mostly inconsequential across the area.

Many of us haven’t seen more than a flurry, while a few have perhaps received a very light dusting -- particularly near and north of I-69.

Once these light flakes move out, the rest of our Finally Friday, as Brandon likes to call it, should be mostly cloudy, with highs perhaps reaching the mid 20s (-5 degrees Celsius). Wind will blow from the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Today’s sunrise is at 7:33 a.m., and today’s sunset is at 6:02 p.m.

Mostly cloudy Friday night, with lows in the mid teens (-9 degrees Celsius). Light snow will develop for some of us, especially south, late at night.

Weekend weather forecast

Light snow is likely on Saturday, continuing into Saturday evening. This continues to look like a 1-to-2-inch snowfall. Highs Saturday in the low 20s (-6 degrees Celsius), and lows Saturday night back down into the single digits (-13 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy to start on Sunday, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper teens (-8 to -7 degrees Celsius).

The core of this current Arctic surge arrives Sunday night and Monday, with lows Sunday night well down into the single digits (-16 degrees Celsius), and highs Monday only in the mid teens (-9 degrees Celsius). There could be some light snow on Monday.

Tuesday snow storm outlook

The models disagree greatly on Tuesday’s storm. They agree that we’ll get snow, but disagree mightily on where the surface low pressure area will be, and that makes a big difference in how much snow we get. The GFS model gives us perhaps 3 inches of snow, while the ECMWF gives us 4-to-8 inches.

We don’t get snow amounts from the UKMET model, but its surface pattern looks more like the ECMWF’s. Meanwhile, the GEM looks nothing like the other three, so I’m discounting it. So right now, plan on some serious shoveling on Tuesday, although the details won’t become more certain until later this weekend.

As for the Thursday storm, the model disagreements are even greater. The ECMWF just about misses us completely, while the GFS plows us with another solid snowfall.

The bottom line is that the pattern change we’ll see next week will be one of more significant storms affecting the eastern U.S., as opposed to those weaker systems we’ve been seeing lately. Stay tuned!

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