4Warn Weather – Metro Detroit has a stormy start to the weekend ahead, including the possibility of an isolated severe storm Saturday afternoon, before cooler and more comfortable weather settles into Southeast Michigan.
Scattered showers remain possible Friday night as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
Saturday brings the highest impact weather
Saturday will not be rainy from beginning to end, but it will be the day to check the 4Warn Weather app if you have outdoor plans.
The morning starts mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 60s.
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible late morning, but coverage is expected to increase as we head into the afternoon.
The most likely window for strong thunderstorms in Metro Detroit is roughly 2 p.m. to 7 p.m., although activity could develop earlier and last later.
Storms will generally move from west to east.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southeast Michigan, including most of Metro Detroit, under a Marginal Risk, or Level 1 of 5, for severe thunderstorms.
The overall severe-weather threat remains relatively low, but an isolated stronger storm could produce:
- Damaging wind gusts around 60 mph
- Hail up to around one inch
- Brief heavy rain and localized flooding
Slow-moving storms and multiple rounds of rain could produce isolated totals of one inch or more.
Temperatures Saturday should reach the upper 70s around Metro Detroit.
Weekend events could be affected
Saturday’s timing matters for anyone attending outdoor events.
The Health Alliance Plan Crim Festival of Races in Downtown Flint starts with comparatively better weather early in the morning.
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s around 7 a.m., with only a low chance for a rain shower.
Rain chances increase later in the morning and become considerably higher by afternoon.
Anyone in Flint for post-race activities should be prepared for showers and thunderstorms and have a way to receive weather warnings.
Sunday’s Detroit Bourbon & Blues Festival at Eastern Market gets much more favorable weather conditions.
Temperatures during the noon-to-7 p.m. event should hover in the lower to mid-70s.
A spotty shower cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon, so keeping an umbrella nearby is reasonable, but Sunday does not look like another Saturday.
Sunday will feel like early fall
The cold front responsible for Saturday’s storms will usher in a noticeably different air mass.
Sunday will be breezy and cooler, with Metro Detroit temperatures generally topping out in the lower to mid-70s. West-northwest winds could gust above 20 mph.
A few afternoon showers may redevelop as colder air aloft moves across the Great Lakes, but much of Sunday should be fine for outdoor plans.
Sunday night gets even cooler, with temperatures dropping into the 50s in many locations.
Great weather for the return to school
For families preparing for the new school year, Monday provides a much quieter start to the week.
Sunshine returns with highs in the upper 70s and noticeably lower humidity.
Students waiting at the bus stop Monday morning may even notice a hint of fall in the air after overnight temperatures fall into the 50s in some communities.
Tuesday looks sunny and warmer, with highs climbing into the lower 80s.
The next opportunity for showers begins to return Wednesday, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances possible Wednesday night into Thursday.
Forecast confidence in the exact timing remains lower that far out.
Drought conditions remain despite weekend rain
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show abnormally dry conditions across a large portion of Southeast Michigan.
Moderate drought is developing near the I-69 corridor.
Saturday’s rainfall will be beneficial, particularly where thunderstorms produce soaking rains, but rainfall totals will vary considerably from one community to another.
National weather: Heat remains a concern
While Michigan gets ready for a cooler air mass, dangerous late-summer heat remains an issue elsewhere in the country.
Parts of the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley continue to deal with dangerous heat.
Triple-digit temperatures and dangerous heat-index values are possible in parts of the South and Southwest.
Thunderstorms are also affecting portions of the central United States, with pockets of severe-weather potential from the Plains into the Midwest.
Tropical Storm Moke strengthens in the central Pacific
The 4Warn Weather team is also tracking Tropical Storm Moke well southeast of Hawaii.
As of Friday, Moke had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west-northwest.
The National Hurricane Center expects gradual strengthening during the next day or two.
Moke is not a threat to Michigan, but it remains an important system to monitor in the central Pacific as it moves generally toward the west-northwest.
For Metro Detroit, the main weather story remains wet weather. Saturday brings our best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms, including an isolated severe-weather threat, before a cooler and much more comfortable pattern arrives Sunday and Monday.
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