NHL Draft Lottery 2020 starts Friday, June 26: Red Wings have best odds

First Phase of draft lottery is ready to go

Steve Yzerman attends the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena on June 21, 2019 in Vancouver, Canada. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Steve Yzerman attends the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena on June 21, 2019 in Vancouver, Canada. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

The 2020 NHL Draft Lottery will be held in phases starting with the “First Phase” on Friday, June 26.

Although it’s unclear if the NHL playoffs actually will proceed amid the pandemic, the plan remains to have the playoffs in late July. What we know for sure is the draft lottery will have to start before the playoffs -- specifically prior to the qualifiers of the 24-team tournament.

How the draft lottery will go

It will consist of three drawings and include the seven teams whose season ended and eight placeholder positions.

The lottery odds for the seven non-qualifying teams were determined by their points percentage during the 2019-20 regular season. The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks.

The first drawing of the First Phase will set the team selecting No. 1 in the draft, the second drawing will set the team selecting No. 2, and the third drawing will set the team selecting No. 3. If a team not in the bottom seven wins any of the first three drawings, a Second Phase will be conducted among the eight teams eliminated in the qualifiers. That would take place between the end of the qualifiers and the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The NHL says if each of the three First Phase drawings is won by a bottom-seven team, the Second Phase will not be necessary. The remaining four teams from the bottom seven will be assigned picks No. 4-7 in inverse order of their regular-season points percentage, and picks No. 8-15 will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the qualifier in inverse order of their points percentage.

Here are the first lottery drawing odds:

  • Detroit Red Wings (.275) -- 18.5 percent chance for No. 1 pick
  • Ottawa Senators (.437) -- 13.5 percent
  • Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks, .450) -- 11.5 percent
  • Los Angeles Kings (.457) -- 9.5 percent
  • Anaheim Ducks (.472) -- 8.5 percent
  • New Jersey Devils (.493) -- 7.5 percent
  • Buffalo Sabres (.493) -- 6.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team A -- 6.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team B -- 5.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team C -- 3.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team D -- 3.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team E -- 2.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team F -- 2.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team G -- 1.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team H -- 1.0 percent

As you can see, the Red Wings will have an 18.5 percent chance of winning, which is 5 percent better than second-place Ottawa. However, Ottawa also holds the San Jose Sharks’ pick, which they got in the Erik Karlsson trade. The Senators have a 13.5 percent chance of winning with their own pick and also have an 11.5 percent chance of winning with the Sharks pick. Combined, that’s a 25% shot at the first pick. In a way, Ottawa has the better odds.

The Red Wings are guaranteed no worse than the fourth overall pick.

Forward Alexis Lafreniere is expected to be the No. 1 pick. Other top prospects include forward Tim Stuetzle, forward Quinton Byfield, defenseman Jamie Drysdale and defenseman Jake Sanderson.

No date for actual draft

There is no official date for when the actual 2020 NHL Entry Draft will take place while we don’t know if the 2020 playoffs will happen, or when the 2020-21 season might start.

We’re still waiting on a lot of information, but we at least know the First Phase of the lottery will happen Friday.

Here’s who Red Wings selected in 2019 NHL Draft

Last year, the Red Wings selected 11 players in the 2019 NHL Draft, starting with a German defenseman in the 1st round. It was the second straight year that they picked 6th overall.

The Red Wings entered the 2019 draft lottery with the fourth-best chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick since they had the fourth-worst record in the NHL this season. They slid back, dropping two spots to No. 6 as Chicago (No. 12) and the New York Rangers (No. 6) moved up into the top-3.

Here's each pick:

  • Round 1 -- 6th overall -- D Moritz Seider 🇩🇪 (view EP page)
  • Round 2 -- 35th overall -- D Antti Tuomisto 🇫🇮 (view EP page)
  • Round 2 -- 54th overall -- LW Robert Mastrosimone 🇺🇸 (view EP page)
  • Round 2 -- 60th overall -- D Albert Johansson 🇸🇪 (view EP page)
  • Round 3 -- 66th overall -- RW Albin Grewe 🇸🇪 (view EP page)
  • Round 4 -- 97th overall -- C Ethan Phillips 🇨🇦 (view EP page)
  • Round 5 -- 128th overall -- D Cooper Moore 🇺🇸 (view EP page)
  • Round 6 -- 159th overall -- RW Elmer Soderblom 🇸🇪 (view EP page)
  • Round 6 -- 177th overall -- D Gustav Berglund 🇸🇪 (view EP page)
  • Round 7 -- 190th overall -- LW Kirill Tyutyayev 🇷🇺 (view EP page)
  • Round 7 -- 191st overall -- G Carter Gylander 🇨🇦 (view EP page)

That’s five defensemen drafted by Detroit -- one in the first round, two in the second round, one in the 5th and another in the 6th.

Read back: Here’s who the Red Wings picked in the 2018 NHL Draft

About the Author:

Dave Bartkowiak Jr. is the digital managing editor for ClickOnDetroit.