Metro Detroit weather: Serious snowfall possible next week

DETROIT – Light snow is likely on Saturday, continuing into Saturday evening.

This continues to look like a 1-to-2-inch snowfall. Highs Saturday in the low 20s (-6 degrees Celsius), and lows Saturday night back down into the single digits (-13 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy to start on Sunday, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper teens (-8 to -7 degrees Celsius).

• Friday forecast: A few flakes today

The core of this current Arctic surge arrives Sunday night and Monday, with lows Sunday night well down into the single digits (-16 degrees Celsius), and highs Monday only in the mid teens (-9 degrees Celsius). There could be some light snow on Monday.

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Tuesday snow storm outlook

The models disagree greatly on Tuesday’s storm. They agree that we’ll get snow, but disagree mightily on where the surface low pressure area will be, and that makes a big difference in how much snow we get. The GFS model gives us perhaps 3 inches of snow, while the ECMWF gives us 4-to-8 inches.

We don’t get snow amounts from the UKMET model, but its surface pattern looks more like the ECMWF’s. Meanwhile, the GEM looks nothing like the other three, so I’m discounting it. So right now, plan on some serious shoveling on Tuesday, although the details won’t become more certain until later this weekend.

As for the Thursday storm, the model disagreements are even greater. The ECMWF just about misses us completely, while the GFS plows us with another solid snowfall.

The bottom line is that the pattern change we’ll see next week will be one of more significant storms affecting the eastern U.S., as opposed to those weaker systems we’ve been seeing lately. Stay tuned!