4Warn Weather – SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: 70.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy skies, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong to severe in the late afternoon and evening. High: 89.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong to severe early. Low: 68.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy skies, a chance of a few rain showers. High: 84.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly clear skies. Cooler temperatures. Low: 62.
Thunderstorms return to the forecast, looking ahead into the start of next week on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) on our severe weather scale on Monday as we watch an area of low pressure work through the state. As of right now, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats, but we will continue to fine tune that forecast as we look ahead into the weekend. There is the potential for an organized severe weather threat as we as look into Monday. With that in mind, we have declared a 4Warn Weather Alert for Monday afternoon & evening.
But, the threat for severe weather on Monday is also a “Conditional” threat, due to the fact that the forecast models are not agreeing on what we may see tomorrow. This is partly due to missing weather data, from weather balloons not being launched on Sunday morning, over portions of the Midwestern United States, and into the four corners region.
When the weather balloons are launched twice a day from various cities all across the country, that data is fed directly into the forecast models we make to use a forecast. If those are not launched, we do not have the “entire picture” on what is going on, and then we do not get the complete output, and in this situation, the forecast models are not agreeing with each other.
Stay tuned, as we need to see how this forecast plays out overnight Sunday night into Monday morning, then how that would impact us as we work through the second half of the day on Monday.
Once that system moves off to the east, we will keep the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms into the forecast on Tuesday, but I do not think the day will be a washout. High temperatures warming into the middle 80s by Tuesday afternoon, then expect more sunshine by the middle of next week on Wednesday. High temperatures warming into the lower 80s by Wednesday afternoon.
Drier weather continues into the second half of next week as well. Mostly sunny skies will give way to a mixture of sunshine and clouds looking ahead into the end of next week on Friday. High temperatures will cool down a bit as well. High temperatures into the low to mid 80s can be expected.
Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms after what we are looking at to start the week, doesn’t arrive until we look ahead to the start of next weekend on Saturday. High temperatures warming back up into the mid-80s by Saturday afternoon. We will also keep the active weather in the forecast for the end of the weekend, expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms next Sunday as well.